The UAE’s National Center of Meteorology (NCM) has confirmed that while the El Niño phenomenon originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean, its indirect global atmospheric effects are raising the likelihood of above-average rainfall across the United Arab Emirates and the broader Arabian Peninsula.
In an official briefing, the NCM clarified that El Niño is characterized by an abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Although geographically distant, the phenomenon significantly alters global jet streams and atmospheric circulation, often resulting in increased atmospheric moisture transport toward the Middle East during the autumn and winter months.
Meteorologists noted that historical climate data correlates moderate-to-strong El Niño events with an increased frequency of unstable weather systems, convective cloud formation, and heavy localized precipitation across the Emirates. The weather authority emphasized that while El Niño creates favorable background conditions for enhanced rainfall, local surface heating, topography, and cloud-seeding operations remain critical factors in determining specific weather events.
The NCM reaffirmed that it continues to monitor global ocean-atmosphere coupling indicators around the clock, urging the public to follow official daily weather bulletins and advisory updates rather than unverified weather forecasts.
